Polymarket edge

Public Polymarket markets across crypto · sports, priced by the oracle: crypto price-threshold markets via a quant model (spot + volatility), the rest via an LLM forecaster fed with free news. Edge = oracle probability − market price. Read-only — no orders placed.

Open markets

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tracked

Edge signals

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oracle > market

Avg edge

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active signals

Edge signals · —

oracle probability vs market price · ¼-Kelly

Market	Side	Market prob (YES)	Oracle p	Conf	Edge	Kelly	Vol 24h	Liquidity	Ends	Source
awaiting polymarket signals

All markets · —

tracked markets · market-implied probability · sorted by 24h volume

All

Market	Category	Market prob (YES)	Vol 24h	Liquidity	Ends
awaiting markets

About Oracle Easy Polymarket

Oracle Easy Polymarket compares live Polymarket prices against a model fair value to surface mispriced prediction-market contracts. Crypto-linked markets are priced with a digital-option model and only liquid markets are flagged. This is an analytics and research tool — informational, not financial advice.

How does Oracle Easy find edges on Polymarket?

It estimates a fair probability for each contract with its own model, compares that to the market price, and flags a contract only when the gap clears a minimum edge threshold and the market has enough liquidity.

Is this financial or investment advice?

No. The figures are model estimates provided for information and research only. Oracle Easy does not place trades or offer investment advice.

How are crypto-linked markets priced?

Crypto markets use a digital-option pricer combining implied volatility, a GARCH volatility forecast, forward-basis drift and a Merton Monte-Carlo simulation to estimate the fair probability of the outcome.

What is the liquidity gate?

Thinly-traded markets have unreliable prices, so the model ignores markets below a liquidity and volume threshold to avoid acting on noise.