How does Oracle Easy find edges on Polymarket?

It estimates a fair probability for each contract with its own model, compares that to the market price, and flags a contract only when the gap clears a minimum edge threshold and the market has enough liquidity.

Is this financial or investment advice?

No. The figures are model estimates provided for information and research only. Oracle Easy does not place trades or offer investment advice.

How are crypto-linked markets priced?

Crypto markets use a digital-option pricer combining implied volatility, a GARCH volatility forecast, forward-basis drift and a Merton Monte-Carlo simulation to estimate the fair probability of the outcome.

What is the liquidity gate?

Thinly-traded markets have unreliable prices, so the model ignores markets below a liquidity and volume threshold to avoid acting on noise.

Polymarket edge

Public Polymarket price-threshold markets in crypto, priced by a quant model: spot, implied volatility with the risk premium removed, and barrier probabilities resampled from four years of real price paths. Edge = model probability − market price, taken only where it survives the pessimistic end of its confidence bound. Read-only — no orders placed.

Paper exposure

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portfolio cap 10%

Edge signals

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oracle > market

Avg expected ROI

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mean edge — pp

Edge signals · —

CLOB ask VWAP + taker fee · ¼ Kelly · 3.75% signal / 5% cluster / 10% portfolio · paper only

Market	Side	Entry	Market prob (YES)	Oracle p	Conf	Edge (pp)	Exp. ROI	Kelly (cap)	Vol 24h	Liquidity	Ends	Source
awaiting polymarket signals

Watch · —

CLOB edge ≥3pp · below action threshold or failed robust bound · zero Kelly / zero exposure

Market	Side	CLOB all-in	Our p	Edge	Why watch	Ends	Source
no watch candidates

Settled terminal predictions · —

current terminal eligibility · first signal per condition · flat 1-unit record · pre-CLOB rows use legacy entry

Settled

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W / L

Accuracy

—

recommended side

Flat ROI

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1 unit / market

Brier vs market

—

positive = model better

Market	Prediction	Entry	Our p	Edge	Result	ROI	P&L	Settled
awaiting settled predictions