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Articles & research
Write-ups on the strategy, the risk model and the validation methodology — including the parts that do not flatter us.
Methodology · 14 Aug 2026
Our live track shows an 85% win rate. Our honest expectation is a 72.9% win rate and a profit factor of 1.12.
Both numbers are ours and both are published. Why they differ, what 17 semesters of walk-forward testing across 8.75 years actually show, the drawdown figure most services never print, and the sequential test that says our live edge is not yet proven.
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More write-ups are in preparation, including the hypotheses we tested and threw away. In the meantime: real trades with their reasoning are on Trade breakdowns, the mechanics are on How it works, and the definitions are in the FAQ.